Global economic growth outpaced expectations in 2023 and forecasts for2024 continue to reflect more modest growth. The U.S. economy remainsbuoyed by a healthy, albeit slowing labor market and strong personalconsumption. A modest increase in the probability of an economiccontraction has been driven by deteriorating corporate sector indicators anda recent downturn in household measures. As a result, we are also seeing anincreasing probability of a weak expansion versus a strong expansion, despitethe very recent healthy reading of U.S. economic growth. While we see agrowing risk to the U.S. consumer as excess savings from the COVID erastimulus has been fully depleted and credit card debt levels continue to rise,household debt ratios remain at manageable levels relative to history, whichhas likely been supportive of personal consumption.